区域联合作战装备保障任务分配模型

现代信息化战争是体系与体系的对抗,区域作战联合装备保障成为信息化条件下装备保障的主要方式,实施科学正确的装备保障指挥,进行保障任务分配对于提高保障效益具有非常重要的意义。通过区域作战装备保障任务的特点,依据区域保障要求建立了包括转场时间在内和不同作战方向上作战单元的重要程度不同的装备保障任务分配模型,保证了重要方向上最晚完成保障任务的作战单元保障时间最短和非重要方向上最晚完成保障任务的作战单元保障时间最短。最后,应用遗传算法给出了区域联合作战装备保障任务分配模型的求解方法和步骤,具有一定的科学性和实用性。     

SVM在空中目标威胁值评估中的应用

构建了基于回归型支持向量机的空中目标威胁值评估模型,确定了基于粗糙集理论的空中目标威胁因素,并建立了数据离散化、归一化的标准。将常用的4种核函数应用于对空中目标威胁值的估计,并通过基于网格法和遗传算法的搜索方法找到模型的最优参数。最后通过Matlab对算例进行了仿真验证。     

基于改进支持向量回归机的火炮身管寿命预测

为准确预测火炮身管寿命终止时火炮射弹数,根据射击过程中火炮身管磨损量与身管寿命特性,分析了身管膛线起始部磨损量与身管射弹数之间的关系,提出了支持向量回归机算法,并采用遗传算法进行模型优化改进,得到火炮身管寿命预测最优模型。结合两种类型火炮的身管数据,利用该模型对身管寿命进行预测,并与原始支持向量回归机进行对比,通过分析可知改进的支持向量回归机预测效果好、精度高,为火炮在实际应用中身管的寿命预测提供了新的思路。     

航空弹药供应保障存在的问题及对策

在现代高技术信息化战争中,航空弹药地位和作用日渐突出。在分析了信息化条件下现代战争对航空弹药供应保障提出的新需求基础上,指出了航空弹药供应保障存在的不足,并从航空弹药的储备、管理和供应三个方面分别提出了相应的对策。研究表明,着眼应急作战的实际需要,搞好航空弹药供应保障,提高应急作战弹药供应保障能力,是摆在面前的一个现实而又紧迫的任务。     

Military deployment and international terrorism: do location and mission type matter?

Extant literature documents a relationship between military deployment and the risk of an international terrorist attack against citizens of the deploying country. It appears that deployment significantly increases the possibility of terrorist actions in the home country. In particular, if country A decides to send troops to nation B, then citizens of the former country are more likely to fall victim of an attack carried out by a terrorist organisation originating from the latter country. Contributing to this line of literature, we further refine this relationship by distinguishing between regions where the troops are sent as well as by introducing differences between types of deployment. Our results indicate that missions to Asia and the Middle East are more dangerous than missions to other regions as reflected by the terrorist threat in the home country. Robustness tests do however show that the significance of the location variable Asia is predominantly attributed to the mission to Afghanistan. As for types of deployment, only ad hoc missions seem to increase the risk of an attack, whereas no significant results are found for other missions such as operations under UN and NATO flag. Leaving out the missions to Iraq and Afghanistan however also increases the danger resulting from missions by fixed coalitions. Our results find however no evidence that ‘wearing a blue helmet’ increases the probability of a terrorist attack at home.     

Advancing “Defence-in-depth”: intelligence and systems dynamics

This article aims to encourage the fostering of more systems thinking, and its greater exploitation, within the domain of contemporary intelligence. With particular focus on “micro systems thinking” and with reference to key intelligence processes, such as intelligence analysis, the utility of many systems dynamics within the intelligence context seeks to be further revealed. Through their greater collective harnessing, including up to “System of Systems” (“SoS”) dynamics, and promoting all that they can offer, more sophisticated overarching operational-to-strategic/policy “ends,” notably that of “defence-in-depth,” can be viably further advanced in a sustainable manner into the future. Arguably, a much-needed transformative impact on contemporary intelligence can also be increasingly realised through comprehensively engaging in and with more systems and SoS thinking. Aiding civil protection tasks, crisis management, emergency planners, and civil contingency practitioners likewise gain.     

基于SCAS的防空反导装备体系作战能力指标设计

指标设计是进行武器装备体系发展论证和作战效能与作战能力评估分析的基础。着眼体系作战效能与作战能力评估分析需求,基于传感器（ Sensor）、控制器（ Controller）、执行器（ Actuator）、支持器（ Supporter）的柔性建模方法,对防空反导装备体系作战能力指标进行了设计,构建了其侦察预警能力、指挥控制能力、拦截打击能力、综合保障能力评估指标体系,并利用结构方程模型（ SEM）对指标之间的影响作用关系进行了分析,可为防空反导装备体系建设与运用提供重要借鉴。     

静态初始条件下的歼击机中距攻防引导方法决策

在静态初始条件下,歼击机中距攻防引导方法的选择是一个定性与定量相结合的类别划分问题,因此,将粗糙集理论与概率神经网络相结合用于该问题的解决。首先,利用粗糙集理论实现专家知识约简、空战态势信息集压缩,得到最小决策信息集;其次,利用概率神经网络进行概率决策推理;最后,通过实例分析,结果表明决策推理正确,在不确定环境下仍然有效,提高了决策过程的自动化程度。     

指挥控制系统中仿真决策系统的嵌入研究

将仿真决策系统嵌入到指挥控制系统中,利用仿真决策支持正在进行的军事行动正成为未来指挥控制系统发展的重要探索方向。研究了嵌入式仿真决策系统的组成,包括人机接口分系统、在线仿真分系统和控制管理分系统等;研究了嵌入式仿真决策系统的功能,包括计划与方案生成、作战态势读取、辅助指挥决策生成、战场态势预判、行动结果管理与未来态势生成控制等;研究了嵌入的关键技术途径,包括嵌入样式、在线仿真决策技术、定性与定量相结合的在线评估、面向服务的组件化设计等。研究成果对探索和建立我国未来新一代指挥控制系统具有重要、积极的现实和军事意义。     

基于扩展H∞滤波的OFDM自适应盲信道估计算法

针对OFDM系统中的信道估计问题,提出了一种基于扩展H∞滤波的OFDM自适应盲信道估计方法。该方法通过对常规H∞算法进行改进,实现了在OFDM系统中能自适应跟踪信道的变化特征,从而使均方误差的性能随着输入信噪比的增加得到很大的提高。仿真结果也验证了该算法优于卡尔曼和H∞估计算法,具有计算复杂度低,运算量小、收敛速度快、算法灵活等特性。